Although Kimi Antonelli statistically has the best chance of winning the 2026 World Championship, team principal Toto Wolff is not yet ready to declare him the favorite heading into the summer break
Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli entered the 2026 Formula 1 summer break with a 50-point lead over his closest rivals. No one in the history of Formula 1 has ever squandered such a large lead at the midpoint of the season.
Nevertheless, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff continues to refuse to call Antonelli the clear favorite for the World Championship in the second half of the year. “It’s still too early to say that,” the Austrian cautions, explaining, “I’m superstitious.”
“Even though the lead is 50 points, there are still so many races left that two retirements could completely turn the tables. And when it comes to reliability, we haven’t exactly been outstanding so far,” the Mercedes team principal points out.
In fact, while Antonelli has won six races so far this year, he has also recorded two zero-point finishes due to technical problems in Barcelona and Silverstone. Teammate George Russell also failed to see the checkered flag in Montreal after a mechanical failure.
“That’s why we simply have to keep making the most of every single day from Friday through Sunday, and hopefully that will be enough in the end,” says Wolff. And Antonelli himself predicts to Sky that it could still be “very close.”
Who still has realistic chances at the world championship?
He emphasized: “McLaren has made a huge leap forward. Ferrari was fast this weekend [in Hungary], and you can never count Max [Verstappen] out. So it’s going to be a really tough fight,” the Italian believes.
The question, however, is who can even get back into the championship fight in the second half of the season. Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton, Antonelli’s closest pursuer, is currently 50 points behind, while Mercedes teammate Russell in third place is already 59 points behind.
Charles Leclerc, currently fourth in the championship and already 81 points behind, likely has only a long shot at the title, while Lando Norris and Max Verstappen trail by 91 and 110 points, respectively.
Verstappen did show in 2025 that he should always be considered a contender in the championship race. Realistically, though, Red Bull would need Mercedes to make more (major) mistakes to get back into the title race this year.
Nevertheless, Antonelli emphasizes that Mercedes must “simply keep raising the bar and come back stronger” in the second half of the season. “Because it’s going to be a very tough fight.”
