A strategic error cost Red Bull the podium in the Formula 1 race in Spain, but could Max Verstappen have even won the Grand Prix?
A rare strategic misunderstanding at Red Bull had a decisive impact on the outcome of the Spanish Grand Prix. Motorsport advisor Helmut Marko admitted to ServusTV on Monday after the race that the decision to send Max Verstappen out on new hard tires during the late safety car period was a mistake.
“The safety car came at the worst possible moment,” said Marko. The team had three options: a new hard tire, a soft tire that was already seven laps old, or staying out on the current soft tires, which were eight laps old. The choice fell on the fresh hard tires, assuming that they would deliver peak performance at the restart.
Marko: Temperature drop to blame for poor restart
But this plan did not work out. The safety car stayed out longer than expected, and during this phase, the hard tires lost a lot of temperature—a known problem with this compound. Oscar Piastri skillfully exploited the situation and led the field extremely slowly at the restart, which further exacerbated the warm-up problems.
“The slower you go, the more the temperature drops,” explained Marko. When the race was restarted, Verstappen was powerless. In the final corner, he struggled to keep the car on the track – attacking the leaders was out of the question.
The world champion questioned the decision over the radio: Why a hard tire? The answer: it was the only new set. But Marko openly admits that the assumption that a fresh tire is automatically the better choice did not apply in this case. Under the circumstances, the hard tire was the worst option.
Data: Verstappen would probably not have been able to win the race
A look at the data from our technology partner PACETEQ supports this assessment. The average tire wear at the Spanish Grand Prix was 0.122 seconds per lap. If Verstappen had continued on the old soft tires, the McLarens with their fresh softs would have had tires that were about one second per lap faster, according to projections. In addition, the McLaren was already two to three tenths faster than the Red Bull.
This results in a theoretical delta of around 1.2 seconds per lap – with an overtaking delta of around 0.5 seconds required on the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris would therefore have been able to overtake Verstappen relatively easily. Against Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc, on the other hand, it would have been closer: the tire delta and car performance combined would probably have only given them a lead of around seven tenths. Verstappen could therefore have defended P3 under certain circumstances.
The fact that fresh tires made a decisive difference was also evident in the midfield. Nico Hülkenberg still had a new soft tire, while Isack Hadjar and Lewis Hamilton did not – and the German was able to overtake both of them with ease. Conversely, drivers such as Liam Lawson, Esteban Ocon, and Gabriel Bortoleto fell significantly behind after the restart. They all stayed out on old tires under the safety car.
Marko also suspects that with a possible restart on old tires, “Then the two McLarens would probably have snatched us, but we could have kept Leclerc behind us.” Instead, Verstappen lost his position to Leclerc and found himself in a duel with George Russell in turn one.
Conclusion: Red Bull in a strategic dilemma
When asked who was responsible for the decision, Marko replied diplomatically: “That’s a team decision.” The mistake was based on a false assumption – namely that a new tire is always better than a used one.
“We had the better tires or the less used tires at that point,” Marko said in retrospect. “Track position would have been better than a new hard.” However, Red Bull was under strategic pressure due to the three-stop strategy it had chosen earlier and simply had no ideal option left.
