New rules, old strength? While experts see Mercedes ahead in Formula 1 in 2026, Toto Wolff warns against taking anything for granted: “The glass is always half empty.”
Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has responded to predictions that the Brackley-based racing team will be particularly strong in the 2026 Formula 1 season. While many experts expect a return to success based on the team’s historical strength in the engine department, the Austrian is exercising restraint.
“Well, I would very much hope so. But I’m a notorious pessimist and, for me, the glass is always half empty rather than half full,” explains the Mercedes team boss in a video debriefing of the team.
The 2026 season marks the beginning of a new era in the premier class. The technical regulations stipulate a new generation of hybrid drives in which power is generated in equal parts by the combustion engine and the electric component.
Since Mercedes dominated the first hybrid era from 2014 to 2021 at will, winning eight constructors’ titles and seven drivers’ titles with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg during that period, it stands to reason that the Silver Arrows will also master the next rule change. However, Wolff warns against exaggerated expectations.
Although internal targets have been set for both the power unit and the chassis, this is no guarantee of success. “Were these targets ambitious enough? Have we overlooked something? Will our execution be as flawless as it should be? I don’t know,” Wolff admits.
Wolff does not expect to see any initial indications of the balance of power until very late in the preparation phase. The first signs of the performance balance will be seen during the test drives at the end of January and then in Bahrain. However, according to Wolff, the key to success lies in the “continuous development of the tools throughout the season.”
TV expert Collins sees advantage for customer teams
Meanwhile, former strategist and current TV expert Bernie Collins sees a structural advantage for Mercedes. As she noted on Sky Sports F1, Mercedes will supply power units to three customer teams in 2026. In addition to McLaren and Williams, Alpine will also be competing with engines from Brixworth. This will give the manufacturer more opportunities to collect data and learn.
“I think the status quo between the teams will change because it will depend on who gets the engine right and who doesn’t,” Collins said. The perception in the paddock at the moment is that the teams that rely on Mercedes engines will come out on top. “But we don’t know. We haven’t compared them against each other yet,” Collins cautioned.
Nevertheless, the broad lineup is an asset. Collins argues: “They have three teams they supply. So they will learn much faster than Honda, which only supplies a single team.” Honda will be Aston Martin’s exclusive partner from 2026.
