The fact that Borussia Mönchengladbach has slipped into a crisis is also a question of efficiency – in two respects. A little data analysis.
A lack of confidence in one’s own abilities, a lack of implementation of the coach’s instructions, anxious behaviour on the pitch: Sports director Max Eberl was himself a little surprised on Saturday at how rapidly Borussia Mönchengladbach has slipped into a crisis, which most recently expressed itself in three games with a total of 14 goals conceded.
Among the Gladbach professionals, however, another bad feeling may have spread and solidified: that their opponents manage to score pretty much everything in front of goal, while they themselves manage to score very little. At any rate, these are the most glaring findings when examining the data of Gladbach’s season so far.
Equal on points with BVB? Not utopian after twelve matchdays
Gladbach’s crisis is also an efficiency crisis. After twelve matchdays, i.e. before the three recent crushing defeats, Borussia should, by xGoals standards, have been part of the top flight, level on points with the actual runners-up Borussia Dortmund: In nine of those games they had a better score than their opponent, but only five of them they actually won.
If you only look at the goals scored after 15 matchdays, no Bundesliga team is as inefficient as Gladbach. Coach Adi Hütter’s team has scored 19 times so far – with 26.6 xgoals. No one else has such a large deficit (-7.6). Wolfsburg (-7.4) and Bielefeld (-4.5; both before matchday 16) follow, while Bayer Leverkusen (+9.6) are at the other end of the scale.
Gladbach’s problems are exacerbated by the fact that at the same time their opponents are making much more of their opportunities than the xGoals value would suggest: The Foals conceded the third most goals in the first 15 matchdays with 28, but are “only” 22.7 in terms of goals conceded after xGoals, putting them in eighth place league-wide. Only Hertha (5.1) and Fürth (11.9) have a greater discrepancy between actual and expected goals conceded (4.3).
Nobody finishes from a shorter distance than Gladbach’s opponents
It is also worth noting that Gladbach’s opponents have the lowest shooting distance of all teams (13.7 metres on average) and Gladbach have blocked the second fewest shots after Bayern (207) (224). The Borussians allow an average of 0.14 goals per opponent’s shot, which is only topped by Fürth (0.17).
Minus 7.6, plus 4.3: Gladbach obviously lacks consistency in front of both goals (but certainly also a bit of luck). Take Freiburg, for example: In their 6-0 home defeat, the visitors’ xG value was just 1.7, while Gladbach’s was 1.3. But instead of celebrating a narrow 2-1 victory, SC put almost every shot on target. It had already been similar in the 1:4 in Cologne (1.1 vs. 1.7).
It is the trend of the last three games: Gladbach made their own (1.33; instead of 1.92 on average over the first twelve match days) and their opponents’ xG-value (2.73 instead of 1.23) even worse, goalkeeper Yann Sommer parried only 43 percent of the shots on goal instead of 63 before. The fact that he was still by far the best Gladbach player against Leipzig (1:4) on Saturday shows how serious the situation is for the Foals shortly before Christmas.