Does a rookie really need three years to become successful in Formula 1, or do the really greats get there much faster?
It’s been 20 years since Formula 1 has seen as many rookies as in 2025. Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber) and Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls) will compete in the first Grand Prix of their careers on March 16. Oliver Bearman (Haas), Jack Doohan (Alpine) and Liam Lawson (Red Bull) already have race experience in the premier class, but are facing their first full season – and thus go down as “half” rookies.
You have to go back a long way in the history books of Formula One to find a season with six rookies. In 2005, Christijan Albers and Patrick Friesacher made their debut with Minardi. Friesacher was later replaced by Robert Doornbos, another Grand Prix newcomer. Jordan sent Narain Karthikeyan and Tiago Monteiro to the start. And Red Bull had Vitantonio Liuzzi, who was allowed to share the cockpit with regular driver Christian Klien at least at the beginning of the season.
Of the 2005 vintage, only Fernando Alonso remains today; however, he drove his first Grand Prix in 2001. None of the 2005 rookies had a breakthrough success. The 2025 vintage, on the other hand, is considered to be very promising: Many believe Antonelli has the talent of a future world champion, Bortoleto is also considered extremely gifted, and Bearman and Lawson have already proven that they have what it takes for a Formula 1 career.
How long does a rookie remain a prospect?
But the rookie thing is complicated. When Mick Schumacher struggled to get up to speed at Haas, many (predominantly German) media outlets argued that he needed to be given more time. Oscar Piastri is still considered a potential super talent despite entering his third year at McLaren and has never been able to match his teammate Lando Norris for a full season.
Expecting a rookie to beat an experienced teammate in their first year may be asking a lot. But former Mercedes sports director Norbert Haug, a true expert in motorsport as the co-promoter of great champions like Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton, is convinced: “Those who come and are really good are usually good right away.”
Haug knows what he is talking about. When Mercedes junior Michael Schumacher first got into the Jordan as a replacement driver in Spa in 1991, he immediately stirred up the absolute world elite on a track unknown to him and had his team-mate Andrea de Cesaris under control. And Lewis Hamilton, in his first season at McLaren-Mercedes in 2007, always made it to the podium in his first nine Grands Prix, including two victories.
“I say only Hamilton, I say only Verstappen,” Haug also refers to the reigning Formula 1 world champion, who was promoted from Toro Rosso to Red Bull Racing during the 2016 season and won his very first race for his current team. Admittedly with a bit of luck and the support of an internal Mercedes collision, but still: even Daniel Ricciardo, then something of the “next big thing” in Formula 1, had a tough time with the then 18-year-old.
Of course: Verstappen “also crashed a few times,” recalls Haug as co-commentator of the live broadcast of the winter tests on Sky, but he had understood how to get his tires up to temperature right from the start, and you could see “who dared to do what”. Haug also points to Verstappen’s meteoric rise even before Formula 1: “He was a direct graduate from Formula 3.”
Is Antonelli as good as Hamilton or Verstappen?
Today, some observers see similar shooting star potential in Antonelli as they did in Verstappen ten years ago. Haug does not rule this out: “I have no idea whether an Antonelli can do that. But I trust Toto Wolff and his team to have thought this through very carefully. And if the boy is as good as Verstappen and Hamilton, if he really can do it, then there will be something really going on in Formula 1.”
“Fernando Alonso,” Haug recalls of the 2007 season, ‘could never understand that Hamilton was as fast as he was from the start – or even faster. He was world champion twice in a row and said to himself, ’There’s no way the rookie is faster than me.’ But that’s how it was. And not because he was disadvantaged, as was sometimes claimed.”
Hamilton almost became world champion in his debut season. In historical hindsight, he probably sunk the 2007 title in the gravel trap at the entrance to the pits in Shanghai. A rookie mistake that will probably also happen to Antonelli in his first Mercedes season: “There will be the odd mistake,” Haug expects. “But let’s wait and see. In any case, there are a handful of promising talents in Formula 1.”