Even after their victory in Belgrade, Germany could still be relegated to League B.
Ahead of the final matchday in the Nations League, the German senior national team’s campaign could still go either way. The home match in Berlin against the Netherlands is the ‘final’ that national team manager Jürgen Klopp had hoped for to secure progression; at the same time, a defeat could see Germany relegated to League B.
One thing is clear: a win will see Germany through to the Nations League quarter-finals. If the DFB side beat the Oranje and Greece fail to beat Serbia in the other match, Germany would even progress to the next round as group winners. Should Klopp’s side lose, however, the team would have to turn their attention to Copenhagen.
Germany could slip into the relegation play-offs
But first things first: two nations are certain to be relegated to League B for the next edition of this UEFA competition. These will be the two worst-performing fourth-placed teams. Further teams from League A could join them. The other teams to be relegated will be determined in play-offs, in which the two best fourth-placed teams from League A and the two worst third-placed teams from League A will face the four group runners-up from League B. The group winners from League B will be promoted directly.
Croatia or the Czech Republic from Group A3 will definitely be among the two worst third-placed teams. Germany, too, could still end up as one of the two weakest third-placed teams: if the German side lose to the Netherlands and Norway beat Denmark in Copenhagen on Tuesday, Germany would fall behind on eight points. In this scenario, Norway and Denmark would then have nine points, whilst Belgium from Group A1 already have nine points to their name.
Nations League: Germany would then be safe
This was made possible by Denmark’s 4–1 thrashing of Portugal on Saturday evening. However, if Norway do not win in Copenhagen, Germany would in any case not be among the two weakest third-placed teams and could therefore no longer be relegated.
The play-offs will take place in March 2027, whilst the best teams in the Nations League will be competing for a place in the Final Four. Germany has never played in League B since the Nations League began.
Should Germany finish third in their group but not be among the two weakest third-placed teams, they would neither progress to the quarter-finals nor have to worry about relegation. In that case, the DFB side would begin their European Championship qualifying campaign in March.