Francesco Bagnaia appears calm, but behind the scenes Ducati is sending clear signals—why leaving is closer for him than extending his contract
Despite the calm Francesco Bagnaia has exuded in recent days regarding his chances of a contract extension with Ducati, signals from the manufacturer’s executive suites suggest that the Italian may be closer to a team change than to staying with Ducati.
At such a crucial moment as this, with the rider market in full swing, information usually reaches the public with a considerable delay—precisely as intended by the main players, teams and riders alike.
The most recent example of this “delay” was evident at Ducati’s team presentation in Madonna di Campiglio, where Bagnaia was one of the central figures.
The calmness displayed by the two-time world champion when asked about the possibility of extending his current contract, which expires at the end of this season, does not entirely match the statements made by Ducati management.
Ducati as good as agreed with Marquez
From CEO Claudio Domenicali to team manager Davide Tardozzi, everyone emphasized that continuing with Marc Marquez is a top priority.
“Extending Marc’s contract is a priority for us, just as it was with Pecco when he became world champion. It’s a complex contract, and there are many things to consider. But we are happy with him and he is happy with us, so we will find a solution together,“ said Domenicali. Tardozzi added: ”As soon as we know whether Marc decides to continue or not, we will think about the second rider. One thing is clear: if Marc decides to leave, our priority will be to extend Pecco’s contract.”
Despite the caution shown by both parties, it can be assumed that an extension of the reigning champion’s contract is almost certain. The signals surrounding Bagnaia are similarly clear, indicating that he is further away from an extension than from looking for alternatives.
Teammate must accept compromises
This is not only due to ambiguous statements such as those made by Domenicali and Tardozzi. Ducati’s clear official stance of considering Marquez a priority has further consequences that speak against Bagnaia, not least financially.
When Marquez joined the factory team in 2025, he did so from a much weaker position than he is in today, which meant that he accepted the terms and figures offered to him with virtually no negotiation. The situation is now completely different after he dominated last season and set the benchmark.
Márquez has strengthened his position and will use this advantage in talks with Ducati—a manufacturer that does not have the same financial clout as Yamaha or Honda. The victim will be his next teammate, who will be forced to accept whatever is offered to him.
Considering that Bagnaia signed his current contract as world champion, it is easy to imagine that he would not be willing to accept a drastic deterioration in his conditions, as now appears to be the case.
The rift between Bagnaia and Ducati
However, Bagnaia’s slump over the course of last season caused tensions within Ducati that were difficult to hide. The rider repeatedly questioned the engineers’ abilities, as he felt they were unable to explain his lack of feeling for the front of his Desmosedici GP25.
This unresolved friction continued until the end of the year, before both sides went into the winter break to prepare for the coming season, not only on the track but also in the offices, ahead of one of the most significant rider markets in recent history, with many changes expected.
“I’m relaxed about my contract extension. I just want to get the season off to a good start and focus on that. There are many riders whose contracts are expiring, and it will be important to keep the focus on the championship,” said Bagnaia at the launch, when asked about his future.
However, no one should believe that the two-time world champion is counting on convincing Ducati in the first races of the season. Managers and experts alike agree that it is very likely that all factory teams will have already finalized their lineups for 2027 and 2028 by the start of the season.
Acosta already confirmed as second Ducati rider?
Given this premise, it stands to reason that Domenicali, Gigi Dall’Igna, and Co. have already made a decision. And this is precisely where the words spoken by Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola last week take on significance.
Rivola assumed, almost as a matter of course, that Marquez’s garage neighbor would be Pedro Acosta. This did not go down well with Dall’Igna. “What struck me was that Rivola talked more about Ducati than Aprilia,” he said.
Taking all this into account, it seems clear that Ducati’s dilemma is either to extend Bagnaia’s contract or to sign Acosta, who would be willing to accept almost any conditions to ride one of the red bikes—a risk similar to the one Marquez took a few years ago.
Signing Acosta would secure Ducati a high-caliber successor for when Marquez retires. But is it really worth sacrificing Bagnaia, still the most successful rider in Ducati’s history, without giving him the chance to prove that his 2025 season was an exception?